Here’s a partial year in review:
In April I said Trump would not be convicted of any of the 91 crimes he was charged with. In May he was convicted of 34 felonies. The rest of them will probably just go away.
In June I said the insurrection case will eventually go to trial. It might, but Trump will not be the defendant. Jack Smith, who was the government prosecutor, will be.
After Trump’s first assassination attempt I said he was the luckiest human being in the history of the universe. This was before the second unsuccessful attempt and all the self-inflicted wounds by Democrats.
In August I said Biden’s legacy would hinge on how helpful he was to the Harris/Walz campaign, how safe and fair the election would be, and, if Trump won, how much policy could he cement in place before January 20. He was not particularly helpful to the campaign. The election was safe and fair – where did all those fraudulent voters go? And we’ll see what Biden does in the next month about policy.
In September I said the abortion rights amendment should pass and will increase Democratic turnout but not enough to elect any statewide candidate. It increased turnout, all right. Thousands of Missourians turned out to vote for abortion rights. Then they voted for Trump. Then they voted for the rest of the Republican ticket. No statewide Democrat came close.
In October I polled my students with the prompt: “Regardless of whom you plan to vote for, who do you think will win, Trump or Harris?” It was Trump 26, Harris 19. And when Nate Silver, Emperor of the Hard Data Universe, said his “gut” told him Trump would win, I should have had my final clue.
But it was no ordinary election year and the polls were too close to call on Election Day. Trump did win all seven swing states but not by much and the Senate and especially the House of Representatives are very tight.
The House is 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There has been only one House closer, more than a hundred years ago. And three of the 220 Republicans will be leaving before January 3, when the new Congress takes office. So House Speaker Johnson has no margin for error.
You can be sure that Democrats will try to convince three or more Republicans to switch parties, so they can gain control. Flipping has happened, most recently a few years ago when a New Jersey Democrat switched. Democrats, depressed, leaderless, and licking their wounds, don’t give much reason to switch right now, but you never know about what might entice someone, especially a Republican in a district that went for Harris/Walz. Democrats could offer plum committee assignments. They could offer serious money guarantees for the 2026 campaign. They could offer the main prize, a picture with Hillary and Bill Clinton.
And the political landscape could look a lot different a few months from now. You never know.
And, bless his heart, auctioneer and Springfield native son Billy Long was nominated to be the head of the Internal Revenue Service. The talent just keeps pouring into Washington.
