AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Voters in New Jersey and Virginia go to the polls this week to choose new governors. One of the issues that's electrified those contests is the soaring cost of electricity. Both states have seen double-digit power price increases in the last year, and voters are frustrated. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now to tell us more.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Good morning, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So how did electricity become such a hot-button issue on the campaign trail this year?
HORSLEY: Well, around the country, we have seen power prices climbing faster than the overall cost of living, and that is a problem that politicians ignore at their peril. You know, I lived in California a quarter century ago when anger about both the cost and availability of electricity drove Governor Gray Davis out of office and opened the door for a governor named Arnold Schwarzenegger. So the price hikes in Virginia and especially New Jersey have been particularly large. You know, the cost of electricity for residential customers in New Jersey has jumped about 21% in the last year. Dan Cassino, who runs a political poll at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey, says that just adds to perennial concerns about the high cost of living in that state.
DAN CASSINO: Sometimes, in affordability, we're talking about property taxes. Sometimes we're talking about housing prices. Sometimes we're talking about groceries. But we're always talking about affordability, and electricity is just now the new way to talk about affordability.
HORSLEY: Now, electricity is still a relatively small part of a typical family's budget - about 2.5% on average. But when so many other things are also getting more expensive, a big power bill can really be a pain.
RASCOE: What's driving these price increases?
HORSLEY: Well, as usual, it's a mix of supply and demand. Both New Jersey and Virginia are part of a mid-Atlantic power grid that has retired some of its old fossil fuel power plants and has been slower than some other parts of the country to add new clean energy sources. At the same time, we have seen a burst of new demand for electricity in those states from all the new data centers that have sprung up as part of the artificial intelligence boom. So it's a complicated puzzle. Cassino says it can be kind of a Rorschach test for voters who are just angry about their rising power bills.
CASSINO: The problem is voters don't understand why this is happening. They just blame whoever it is that they don't like. So Democrats say, oh, it's Donald Trump, or they blame greedy electric companies. Republicans say, well, it's the Democrats. So everyone's just blaming whoever they don't like for it.
HORSLEY: In New Jersey, the incumbent governor is a Democrat. In Virginia, the incumbent is a Republican. Neither of them is on the ballot, but the candidates from both parties who hope to replace them are being asked how they plan to tackle this problem.
RASCOE: These off-year governors' races are often seen as a dress rehearsal for issues that later go national. Are electricity prices going to be a factor in other parts of the country in next year's elections?
HORSLEY: They could be. You know, other states are wrestling with some of these same challenges, although most parts of the country are not seeing double-digit price hikes like New Jersey and Virginia are. Nationally, demand for electricity is growing faster now than it did for most of the last two decades. At the same time, the Trump administration has taken steps to limit new solar and wind generation. And natural gas, which is the No. 1 source of electric power generation in the country, is getting more expensive, partly because we are exporting more of our natural gas. Now, Cassino says voters may or may not sift through all those details. But if they're unhappy about their electric bills and the overall cost of living, that could be a factor in the voting booth next year.
CASSINO: People feel helpless. It almost doesn't matter if the helplessness comes from the electricity rates or from the rent going up or from inflation. When voters feel helpless, they're going to blame somebody. And if you are that somebody, it is a bad time to be an incumbent.
HORSLEY: We saw that around the world last year when politicians on the left and the right were punished because people were unhappy with the high cost of living.
RASCOE: That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Thank you so much for joining us.
HORSLEY: Good to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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