In a 1780 letter, John Adams, America’s only Federalist Party president, expressed fear of his nascent country becoming a two-party system: “There is nothing I dread So much, as a Division of the Republick into two great Parties, each arranged under its Leader, and concerting Measures in opposition to each other.”
If Missourians approve Amendment 7, a statewide ban on ranked-choice voting that is on the Nov. 5 ballot, proponents of the voting system say a ban will limit future reforms that could bolster third parties.
Those opposed to ranked voting argue the voting system would make elections less competitive. They say it confuses voters.
Under the system, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If one candidate receives more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, that candidate wins. Otherwise, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated. Votes on those ballots are reallocated to the second choice of those voters. If that still doesn’t produce a candidate with more than 50 percent of the votes, the process continues until one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote.
The first part of Amendment 7 is unrelated to ranked voting. It asks voters whether non-citizens should be banned from voting. Non-citizens are already ineligible to vote under Missouri law. Sen. Ben Brown, R-Washington, who sponsored the legislation that put Amendment 7 on the ballot, said he wants more explicit language banning them. Opponents of that language term it “ballot candy” because it appears attractive at first glance but is unrelated to the substance of the amendment.
Ranked voting is not new. Ireland and Australia have used versions of it for a century.
Used in just two statewide elections, in Maine and Alaska, various versions of ranked voting have gained traction in American cities’ local elections. Six Southern states use it for military and overseas voters. Two of those states — Mississippi and Louisiana — have recently passed bans on ranked voting in other uses.
As it has gained popularity in the United States, so, too, have efforts to ban it. If voters approve Amendment 7 in November, Missouri will join 10 states in banning ranked voting.
“It’s a lot to ask people already to take time outside their lives and do research and find one candidate that represents their values,” Brown said. “People shouldn’t feel pressured into selecting multiple candidates that might not represent their values just to ensure that their votes actually count toward the end result.”
Amendment 7 bans the practice in statewide elections. It also means Missouri cities cannot choose to use it in local elections. It carves out an exception for St. Louis, which uses approval voting in local elections.
“It’s rather extreme in the sense that it doesn’t leave any option for a city trying it out. The only way to learn about how alternative voting rules operate is to try them out,” said David Kimball, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis who specializes in voting behavior and election administration.
Maine kept ranked choice; Alaskans could scrap it
In Maine, voters elected to adopt ranked voting for statewide primaries and federal elections beginning in 2018. Lawmakers attempted to block its use, but voters overrode their legislature and reinstated the new voting system.
“We haven’t seen any data that suggests real voter confusion. For example, we haven’t seen increased rates of spoiler ballots or any reduction in voter participation,” Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said.
Unlike Maine, Alaska uses multiparty primaries, so all voters get the same primary ballot regardless of political registration. Voters pick one candidate in the primary. The top four vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election, where voters rank their preferences.
Alaskans will have an opportunity to repeal ranked-choice voting this year.
The primary ballot for a 2022 special election, Alaska’s first since approving the new system, listed 48 candidates vying for the state’s only U.S. House seat. The list included a bearded city council member from North Pole, Alaska, named Santa Claus. The election resulted in an upset victory, flipping the seat to Democrats for the first time in 50 years.
A group called Better Elections tried unsuccessfully to get an initiative petition on the Missouri ballot in 2022 that would have instituted a system mirroring Alaska’s. Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft opposed the effort. If all candidates who advance to the general election come from the same party, the voting system would stifle competition, he said.
“Ranked-choice voting would make sure those third parties would never see the general election,” he said, adding that voters pay more attention to the general election than the primary. Voter turnout was just 24.4 percent in Missouri’s August primary. The number typically increases twofold for the general election.
“It would censor their ability to be a part of the political process, to be a part of debates and to get their message out when most people are paying attention,” he said.
Ashcroft added that the new voting system would delay results, undermining trust in the electoral process.
Opposition to ranked voting has come from both major parties. Democratic lawmakers in New York City opposed ranked choice in 2020 after voters adopted it for the city’s mayoral race. Last month, the District of Columbia’s Democratic Party filed a lawsuit to block an initiative adopting ranked voting from appearing on the Washington, D.C., ballot.
When St. Louis switched to an approval vote system, similar but distinct from ranked voting, Democratic Rep. Karla May initially opposed its adoption because it would “wake up the Republican Party,” the Columbia Missourian reported.
The spoiler effect and the two-party system
Advocates contend ranked-choice voting reduces hyper-partisanship. Candidates would vie not just for the first place but to be someone’s second or third choice. They argue it adds more options for voters whose ideologies or stances on issues do not align with the two major parties.
“Because our system is winner take all, if you lose a little bit of your base to a third party, the quote ‘bad guys’ will win,” said Zach Goss, a volunteer with Better Ballot Kansas City, which advocates for ranked-choice voting. “The parties have to calcify in their beliefs.”
Like most places in the United States, Missouri elections use a plurality system, also called first-past-the-post. Candidates with the most votes win, even if they don’t get a majority of all ballots cast. As a result, many consider voting for a third party a wasted vote.
The phenomenon is called the “spoiler effect:” when the presence of candidates not part of a major party takes votes away from a more viable candidate most similar to that third-party candidate. It leads to strategic voting; voters select a candidate they prefer and who has the most likely chance of winning, even if they prefer a non-viable candidate.
Voting for a Libertarian candidate, for example, takes a vote away from the Republican candidate, who is most ideologically similar. Thus, a Libertarian Party vote winds up boosting the Democratic candidate’s chance of winning. Similarly, a vote for the Green Party could actually boost the Republican Party’s chance of winning.
The result: Political survival depends on toeing to major party lines on all issues. Critics of the system argue Americans are left to pick either one party with one set of policies or another party with the exact opposite set of policies.
“If you’re a pro-lifer who believes in universal health care, there’s no party for you,” Goss said.
Because of Missouri’s reliably Republican statewide ballot success recently, in elections for statewide offices the primary becomes the most important election. In competitive primaries, a Republican candidate can win with a small plurality, then secure a comfortable victory in the general election.
State Sen. Denny Hoskins, for example, won the Republican primary for Secretary of State in August with 24 percent of the Republican primary vote against seven challengers. He’s considered the likely choice in November as Republican votes are expected to coalesce behind him. Less than 4 percent of Missouri’s roughly 4.3 million voters cast ballots for Hoskins in the primary. In 2022, the most recent available figures, the state had 4.28 million registered voters, down from 4.34 million in 2020, according to the Secretary of State’s website.
Switching to ranked-choice voting for statewide elections in Missouri would be costly and a logistical headache, says Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon. The Missouri Association of County Clerks and Election Authorities passed a resolution opposed to ranked-choice voting, she said.
Switching voting systems in local elections would not be as difficult, she said, but a new voting system wouldn’t necessarily address the issue of candidates running unopposed in local elections.
“We can barely get one person to file for a lot of these offices,” she said.
