The U.S. Supreme Court dealt a major blow to the Voting Rights Act Wednesday, a move that could conceivably provide a green light for Missouri lawmakers to convert a St. Louis-based congressional district into a more Republican seat.
But there is almost no chance that lawmakers would be able to substantially change Missouri's 1st Congressional District in time for this year's election cycle, primarily because there aren't enough GOP members in the House to make the map go into effect right away.
The court ruled 6-3 that a Louisiana congressional map resulted in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
Eddie Greim, a Kansas City-based attorney who successfully argued the case before the Supreme Court, said the ultimate result is that congressional districts that were not created as a result of intentional racial discrimination will be declared unconstitutional.
"If you don't have recent intentional discrimination in that area, that district is gone," Greim said. "And the reality is that there just isn't evidence in these cases of authorities intentionally discriminating against minority voters like there would have been earlier in the 20th century. That evidence doesn't exist. And if you look at the cases, you see that they're having to rely on really old facts."
While the ruling did not strike down a clause in the Voting Rights Act that protects minority-majority districts, it could make it much easier for states, especially in the South, to convert majority Black districts into whiter, more Republican ones.
Missouri's 1st District, which includes all of St. Louis and some of St. Louis County, has had either a majority or plurality African American population for decades. Under a congressional map that lawmakers passed last year, the 1st District remains heavily Democratic even though some questioned whether it still possessed a majority or plurality Black population. The Missouri Supreme Court will hear a case next month about whether the 2025 map or one passed in 2022 is in effect for the 2026 election cycle.
Attorney General Catherine Hanaway's office said Wednesday it does not expect the Supreme Court's decision to affect the 2025 map, which a Cole County judge ruled is now in effect.
Because Republicans do not have enough members in the Missouri House to make a bill go into effect right away, any bill passed in either regular session or a special session would go into effect after the August primaries take place.
"I won't say it can't, but I would say it would probably be difficult," said Marc Ellinger, a lawyer who has represented the Missouri Republican Party recently in redistricting cases.
Still, Hanaway, whose office had called the 2022 version of 1st Congressional District an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, praised the Supreme Court's decision.
"Racial discrimination has no place in drawing congressional maps," Hanaway said. "We filed a brief in support of Louisiana's case to fight for equal treatment under the law. SCOTUS made the right call."
'Green light for gerrymandering'
Denise Lieberman of the Missouri Voter Protection Coalition said Wednesday that even though it's unlikely the Supreme Court decision will affect Missouri this election cycle, there's now nothing stopping the legislature from trying to convert the 1st District into a more Republican seat in the future.
"It's unlikely that those district lines can change before this year's elections, but that doesn't mean that the rights of these voters are not impacted going forward," Lieberman said. "And what today's decision does is green light gerrymandering and splitting up of those districts, diluting the ability of communities of color to elect candidates of their choice."
The Missouri Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that lawmakers can redraw districts whenever they choose, including during the 2027 legislative session.
"It makes it easier for politically motivated decisions based on race to survive, and that is heralding times to come," Lieberman said. "Whether or not it changes the 1st Congressional District for the upcoming elections, which I think is unlikely, doesn't mean that it's not going to have impacts in states like Missouri going forward."
While it's also possible that someone could file a lawsuit to argue that the 1st District is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, Greim said that case may be hard to prove.
Republicans and Black Democrats have had a decades-long alliance that maintains a majority Black 1st Congressional District. By packing heavily Democratic areas of St. Louis and St. Louis County into one district, the nearby 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts remain fairly Republican leaning.
"There's a practical point, which is maybe trying to make [the 1st District] more Republican will just endanger the three neighboring districts – and that might not make much sense," Griem said.
Ellinger said it is possible to draw a 1st District that has a majority of Republican voters, but it likely wouldn't be a slam dunk for the GOP.
"There's a lot more flexibility, and there's lots of options that could be on the table," Ellinger said.
In an interview earlier this year, Hanaway, a former speaker of the Missouri House, said practical concerns may forestall lawmakers from redrawing Missouri's map again to substantially change the 1st Congressional District.
"There are a number of practical impediments, specifically that it takes up valuable time from passing any other legislation. It's very difficult to get a consensus," Hanaway said. "Even when the districts benefit one party over another, it is hard to divide up the state in a way that satisfies a majority of the General Assembly and a majority of the congressional delegation. So even though there won't be legal impediments. I think the practical impediments make it unlikely that this is going to be a frequent occurrence."
Bell and Bush united in protecting Missouri's 1st District
Earlier this year, Congressman Wesley Bell, who represents Missouri's 1st District, said he would do whatever it took to prevent the legislature from going after his district. "It's not about me," he said in February. "It's about voters, all voters, having a voice."
Bell said in a statement on Wednesday that the ruling "continues taking our constitutional rights down a dark path not befitting the promise of the greatest democracy the world has ever known."
"The more I read today's decision, the more concerned I am for how this could severely impact the American people's fundamental right to vote and have a voice in our democracy," Bell said. "Our civil rights leaders fought and continue to fight tirelessly to ensure this country's past sins do not define our future. And now we've taken a huge step backwards."
Bell's main opponent in this year's Democratic primary, former Congresswoman Cori Bush, also said she would do whatever it took to prevent the legislature from converting the 1st District into a more GOP-leaning seat.
"I'm not just going to sit back and allow it to happen. I'm not just going to just hope that things turn out for the best," Bush said. "My work isn't to protect my name, title or my reputation. It's about the people of the district."
This story has been updated with additional comments from attorneys.
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