Immigration is the largest contributor to Missouri’s growing population, according to census data analyzed by MU Extension.
“Natural change” is the difference between births and deaths in a population. In the last four years, there were more deaths than births in Missouri, resulting in a population decrease of 11,000 people.
However, due to migration from other states and other countries, Missouri’s population grew 1.5% during that period.
“Missouri as well as some of our border states, including Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee, saw natural decreases but we made that up in immigration,” said Luke Dietterle, regional economic development specialist with MU Extension. “We had an increase of over 90,000 individuals and that's entirely driven by migration both from other states to Missouri, but also international migrants to Missouri.”
Dietterle’s analysis of the U.S. Census data ranks Missouri as the 19th-most populous state in the country, with more than 6.25 million residents.
The state’s metro areas — including Kansas City, St. Louis, Columbia, Springfield, Joplin, St. Joseph and Cape Girardeau — had a slightly higher growth rate of 1.6%, while nonmetro counties grew at a rate of 1.1% during the same period. That’s due to population growth from both domestic and international migration.
“The domestic migrants, a lot of them are coming from Illinois,” Dietterle said. “Of all of our border states, Illinois is experiencing the most significant population loss, and in that case, where it is Illinois’ loss that is Missouri’s gain.”
More than half of the migrants relocating to Missouri between 2020 and 2024 were from outside the U.S.
During that four-year period, Missouri ranked 28th in the nation for international immigration and 17th for domestic migration.
“As our young population shrinks and our more aged population grows, we're going to see bigger natural decreases. We're going to see more deaths than births,” Dietterle said. “A really positive thing is that we are more than making up for that in migration.”
Population and the rural workforce
Boone County continues to grow in population but some other mid-Missouri counties are experiencing declines.
Randolph and Audrain counties both experienced a population decline of 2.6%. Decreasing numbers of residents can affect the region’s workforce, particularly in manufacturing.
Ensuring availability of jobs and workers is a delicate balance that Kaylee Paffrath, president of the Moberly Area Economic Development Corporation, keeps a close eye on.
“It's hard to attract a business if you don't have the people,” Paffrath said. “Right now, we're good on our businesses. We're continuing to attract and now we're kind of shifting the needle towards attracting people.”
As large employers continue to set up shop in mid-Missouri, Paffrath said she’s working to attract hotels, restaurants and shops to the Moberly area to increase quality of life for current and future residents and workers.
“We have the jobs. We have the homes. Now we need some places to shop and eat,” she said.
Due to low unemployment levels in Mexico, Missouri, “stabilizing” the workforce is a priority for Dana Keller, executive director of the Mexico Area Chamber of Commerce.
Keller said keeping workers on the job and building employee longevity is top of mind for Mexico employers. However, there are a variety of circumstances — everything from car trouble to child care availability — that can negatively affect a person’s ability to be successful at their job.
“Sometimes it's the smallest things, and it turns into a really big deal,” Keller said.
In response, Keller and other community leaders launched the Workforce Resource Assistance Program, or WRAP, four years ago.
Some of the area’s largest employers — including manufacturers Fluid Power Support, Spartan Light Metals and True Manufacturing, as well as wholesaler Gold Crest Distributing — collect funds to hire what Keller calls “guidance counselors for work” that provide support to approximately 1,000 of the community's workers.
“Employees can see the WRAP specialist while they're on the clock,” Keller said. “We have problem-solved or worked through everything you can imagine from food insecurities (to) situational emergencies or poverty situations.”
The program has also made personal finance education and mental health training available to Mexico-area workers.
