Meteorologists are expecting average to slightly above average amounts of snowfall in Missouri this winter.
Scientists project this winter to follow a weak La Niña weather pattern.
This weather pattern involves a cooling effect on waters in the Pacific Ocean, which influences global wind patterns. The polar jet stream tends to steer cold Arctic air into the northern United States, increasing the likelihood for rain to turn into snowfall.
The jet stream is projected to be weaker this year, which is why meteorologists are predicting an average amount of snowfall.
Columbia’s winter snowfall average is 15 inches. This is the exact amount of snow that fell in the city last year, and yet a few snow storms caused Columbia Public Schools to run out of Alternative Methods of Instruction hours last winter.
This year, CPS will no longer use AMI hours for inclement weather.
University of Missouri atmospheric sciences professor Eric Aldrich said specific weather predictions are still mostly guesses at this point in the season.
“For those types of seasonal or long-range forecasts, we can figure that out far in advance,” Aldrich said. “But to get really specific on how much snow we’re going to get, those types of forecasts are only accurate out to four days or so.”
KOMU 8 meteorologist Matt Beckwith said the droughts Missouri faced in late summer could create conditions that produce more severe weather in the spring.
“Especially when you get to the severe weather season,” Beckwith said. “You do run into some issues with moisture when it comes to thunderstorms, and drought can really play a role there.”
These dry conditions can complicate forecasts during the winter season and later projections for the severe weather season that follows in the spring, he said.
