Flu season is underway, and while cases are still low in Missouri, medical professionals are watching a variant called "subclade K" that has been dominant overseas.
This is a variant of influenza A or H3N2, which tends to be more infectious and causes more severe disease in seniors and young children.
Subclade K is also mismatched to this year's annual flu vaccine, which was developed before this variant emerged.
But early research from the United Kingdom, where subclade K is already prominent, shows that the vaccine is still effective at preventing hospitalizations.
KBIA’s Rebecca Smith recently sat down with Dr. George Turabelidze an epidemiologist with the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, about what this could mean for Missourians.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Rebecca Smith: So, before we dive into this particular variant — can you talk about the way that the flu vaccine, the formulations, are derived every year? Kind of, how they're the best guess of what we anticipate?
Dr. George Turabelidze: WHO [World Health Organization] panel of experts on flu make a decision about next year's flu vaccine around February, March.
Most of the time between February March and the start of next season — viruses don't change as much, and there is a relatively good match to that following years flu vaccine.
What happened this year — that decision was made about the same time. Back then there was a J2 subclade of influenza H3N2, so they made decision that the vaccine should be J2 subplate-based.
But right after that, and during while they were talking, the flu virus disregarded their opinion and kept mutating.
Laughter
And over summer — when there is a flu season in southern hemisphere — it mutated so much that we now have that subclade K.
Rebecca Smith: Yeah. How closely related are these mutations, you know, are these siblings? Are these second cousins twice removed?
Laugher
Dr. George Turabelidze: Yeah, they are pretty closely related still. That's why — when we talk about vaccine effect[ivness], we don't talk, like, “You have no immunity from vaccine at all.”
Actually, I was thinking, what is the good analogy for people to better kind of conceptualize this, and I thought of, like, thinking of influenza vaccine as, like, a body armor.
When you have this body armor — sometimes you have a good armor, sometimes you have a bad armor.
In a case of subclade K — imagine you still have body armor, you just have a kind of a hole in it, which is concerning. That's pretty much what it is. You still have armor on, but it's not as good as it was last year or year before because now you have a hole in it
Rebecca Smith: Well, so, knowing that, you know, what's your recommendation for folks — why would now be a good time? Or what is your guidance when it comes to vaccination against flu and, in particular, subclade K?
Dr. George Turabelidze: We have now holiday season coming — Christmas and New Year's, and we still have lot of people who are not vaccinated in this country.
And considering that we have strain that we were not expecting, it's better to vaccinate now, because the vaccine takes, at least, minimum two weeks to boost your antibody levels to sufficient levels to be meaningful.
So, if you take vaccine on December 24 because you are going to Christmas party on December 25 — it's not going to work. You need time, so it's a good time to do it now, to be prepared for the holiday season.
Because when we talk about severity and how it is so difficult to predict severity, it does not depend only on the virus. A lot depends on the public's behavior.
So, there are so many factors that are not just virus that decides, eventually, how bad the season was, and we cannot control many of those factors. So, the only thing you can control is take the vaccine.
Rebecca Smith: Well, I hope you have a great day, George. I hope you stay flu-free and healthy and —
Dr. George Turabelidze: I'm vaccinated for sure.
Rebecca Smith: Thank you again so much for your time. I really appreciate it.
