Missourians' views on gender-affirming care for minors could sway voter support for a constitutional ban on most abortions in the state, a St. Louis University and YouGov poll released this week indicates.
The amendment would prohibit abortions in the state, with exceptions for rape incest and medical emergencies. It would effectively overturn a 2024 measure called Amendment 3 that placed Missourians' right to an abortion in the state's constitution.
Of those polled, 47% supported this November's anti-abortion ballot measure, also called Amendment 3. That's despite voters' support for abortion rights remaining relatively stable for the past four years.
SLU professor Steve Rogers, the poll director, said the support could be because the amendment includes a ban on gender-affirming care for minors; the poll showed two-thirds of those surveyed opposed such procedures.
"I think a critical aspect of it is that there are also going to be restrictions placed into the constitution regarding gender-affirming care," he said. "I think this is going to be the key difference between what we saw, say, two years ago and now."
Rogers said an analysis showed that views on allowing hormones, surgeries and other procedures for transgender children and teens were a stronger indicator of whether voters would support the ballot measure.
"If I look at the voters who are reporting that they are not sure, at least in terms of their views of gender-affirming care, they look a lot more like the people supporting the amendment than the people who are opposing it," he said.
Those who oppose the measure have criticized the inclusion of transgender medical procedures in the ballot language, arguing the two procedures have little to do with each other.
Sponsors said the inclusion of the measures made sense because they both concerned reproductive health, since some treatments affect patients' fertility.
Missouri has already temporarily banned gender-affirming care for minors in the state, and several bills before the legislature this session seek to make the ban permanent.
Abortions in Missouri remain nominally legal, but providers said regulations and remaining restrictions governing the procedure have made it impossible to offer medication abortions.
A bench trial that would overturn regulations governing the procedure concluded in January, and a Kansas City judge is considering the case.
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