Want more news about agriculture and the environment? Sign up for the Harvest newsletter for our latest reporting, plus behind-the-scenes exclusives.
Dozens of states may be on the hook for millions of dollars next year to help feed low-income families through the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.
The exact amount states will pay hinges on their annual SNAP payment error rate, which includes over payments and under payments of federal benefits to participants. Payment error rates are not a metric for fraud, and are largely unintentional, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law last July, states with error rates at or above 6% will be responsible for covering 5%, 10% or 15% of the SNAP benefits in the coming years. A higher error rate places a state in a higher cost-share bracket.
Food security organizations worry it could result in less support for people who need it and are urging federal lawmakers to delay the changes.
“This is the first time in history that benefits would have a state cost-share and not be fully federally funded,” said Paige Chickering, vice chair of the Iowa Hunger Coalition. “We really are in uncharted waters.”
The funding shift begins in October 2027 for most states. They can choose the lower error rate from either federal fiscal year 2025 or 2026, which runs from October through September.
States with rates above 13.32% would not pay until the 2029 or 2030 fiscal year. The carveout was created to get enough votes for the bill to pass the Senate, according to The New York Times.
USDA data released last week shows the national average SNAP payment error rate was 10.62% in fiscal year 2025.
“These payment error rates are further proof that state accountability is severely lacking in SNAP,” said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in a press release announcing the error rate data. “USDA has taken historic action to help interested states curb SNAP waste, and I hope other states, regardless of political leadership, prioritize needy families and the American taxpayer over politics.”
The left-leaning think tank Center on Budget Policies and Priorities estimates states could pay a total of roughly $9 billion based on the 2025 fiscal year error rates. Nearly half of the states may owe $100 million or more.
Only nine states have an error rate below 6% -- including Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
“While we are in a relatively good position here in Iowa, specifically with a low payment error rate, which means we are likely to be able to keep everyone's SNAP benefits intact moving forward, the national picture, I must say, is significantly more bleak,” Chickering said.
On top of potential error rate payments, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also increases the SNAP administrative cost-share from 50% to 75% for all states, starting in October.
The higher cost burden could result in states changing benefits or eligibility requirements for SNAP participants, or completely dropping the federal program, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
“That would be absolutely devastating to children and families who rely on SNAP to put food on the table,” Chickering said.
The Iowa Hunger Coalition is urging Congressional lawmakers to delay the cost-shift timeline for SNAP benefits to give states “the best possible chance” at lowering their error rates, she said.
Oklahoma’s SNAP error rate slightly increased in the past fiscal year to 11.04%. However, Deborah Smith, deputy director of the Oklahoma Department of Human Services, said the figure does not fully reflect the actions the department has taken in the last year.
“We always want the error rate moving in the right direction, but at the same time, this release really looks at a period kind of before the new federal requirements were in place,” Smith said. “Really we see some slight fluctuations from year to year. All states do.”
Using the latest number, Smith said Oklahoma would owe about $250 million in SNAP benefit costs. But she is confident it will be lower soon, and some more recent data suggests it could be cut in half for the next fiscal year.
Stacy Dykstra, CEO of the Regional Food Bank of Oklahoma, said in a statement that the additional millions of dollars in costs would put pressure on the state budget and increase the risk of cuts to essential services.
"For the Regional Food Bank, that could mean more families turning to us for help at a time when the need is already high,” Dykstra said in the statement. “Oklahoma needs more time to make thoughtful, accurate improvements to SNAP so we don’t unintentionally increase hunger. We urge Congress to delay the cost shift and give states the time needed to get this right.”
Oklahoma ranks sixth among states with the highest food insecurity rates, with nearly 17% of households experiencing food insecurity in 2022-2024, according to a USDA report.
Missouri’s SNAP error rates have trended down in recent years, falling from 10.54% in fiscal year 2023 to 8.67% in fiscal year 2025.
“The Department of Social Services says they are working really diligently to get their error rate down by next year,” said Christine Woody, the food security policy manager for Empower Missouri, a nonprofit anti-poverty advocacy organization. “I think our biggest concern is, what does that actually mean?”
The error rate does not reflect whether someone is wrongfully denied or cut off from SNAP benefits, Woody said. More people could go hungry with states under pressure and tight deadlines to drop their error rates.
Food banks and pantries are already seeing higher demand, Woody said.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act included new eligibility and work requirements to enroll in SNAP.
Nationally, enrollment dropped by 5.5 million people between January 2025 and March 2026, according to the Food Research and Action Center. The steepest decline came in the eight months after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law.
“Since August of 2025, SNAP caseloads in Missouri have already dropped by 50,000 people,” Woody said. “That includes thousands and thousands of children and thousands of folks who are disabled, who cannot work.”
The decrease does not point to greater economic stability in Missouri, she said.
“I think it really is based on barriers and bureaucratic hurdles that now have been put in place in SNAP,” Woody said.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
