Donald Trump carried Missouri’s 34th Senate District by 11 percentage points in 2024. The incumbent Republican state senator won re-election two years earlier by 18 points.
Yet with Election Day approaching, Republicans have spent more than $300,000 on television advertising to keep the northwest Missouri seat in GOP hands.
The spending comes as Democrats hope an increasingly unpopular president, energized voters and a slate of contentious ballot measures could put a traditionally Republican district in play.
Republican state Rep. Mike Jones of Kansas City faces Democrat Shereka Barnes, a member of the Park Hill Board of Education, in the race to replace term-limited state Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer in the 34th District.
Luetkemeyer won the seat with 52.5% of the vote in 2018, then won re-election with 59% in 2022. But the district’s boundaries changed in between, with Platte County becoming a larger share of the electorate after Buchanan County was split during redistricting.
A poll from August suggests that Republicans are doing more than using up accumulated cash. Between February and August, the St. Louis University YouGov poll of the generic congressional ballot moved 41 points against Republicans in northwest Missouri, generally Boonville to Maryville moving to the northwest and St. Joseph to Mercer County going from the southwest corner. From 56 points ahead, the survey put Republicans 11 points behind.
The results come with a significant caveat: The regional samples included just over 50 voters in each poll, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the size or significance of the shift. But the survey suggests a serious shift in sentiment toward Republicans, said Ed Taylor, a professor of political science at Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph.
“The poll’s broader findings fit a tougher environment for Republicans than a year ago,” Taylor said in an email. “(President Donald) Trump’s approval among Missouri likely voters slipped underwater for the first time in that poll, and approval of Gov. (Mike) Kehoe and the legislature hit new lows.”
Despite the shift in polling, Democrats face a steep climb in the 34th District.
“The district leans Republican, roughly R+11 based on the 2024 presidential vote,” Taylor said. “Republicans outnumber Democrats considerably among Missouri voters. Even with a better environment for Democrats, they’d need to overperform that baseline substantially.”
If Barnes defeats Jones, it won’t be by outspending him. Barnes has raised $39,877 since starting her campaign, spent $29,168 and had $3,831 on hand on Sept. 30.
Jones raised $124,204 from late August to the end of September and had about $220,000 on hand on Sept. 30. Beverly PAC, a committee backing Jones, raised $166,827 and had just over $245,000 available.
Beverly PAC reported another $122,000, mainly from PACs associated with other Republican senators, in the past week.
Jones’ campaign spent $190,000 on Kansas City broadcast ads, while Beverly PAC purchased more than $50,000 worth time on St. Joseph television stations. Another $73,000 in television buys came in the St. Joseph market from the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, the PAC that backs GOP Senate candidates generally.
The main factor working against Republicans in northwest Missouri is Trump, said Jessica Gracey, an associate professor of political science at Northwest Missouri State University.
Gracey was the treasurer for a Democratic Missouri House campaign that spent nearly a quarter of a million dollars in 2022 and got a quarter of the total vote.
Polling nationally shows voter discontent with inflation and the war. Northwest Missouri farmers are buying diesel at record prices to harvest crops and making contracts for fertilizer that has also gotten expensive as the price of oil has increased.
“Democrats here have gotten a lot more energized than they would have before in a lot of ways, and a lot of that is being angry at President Trump,” Gracey said. “That is a big motivator for a lot of people.”
The political tide may be running toward Democrats, but Gracey said she doubts it is strong enough to overcome party identity in far northwest Missouri.
“It is hard for a Democrat to convince Republicans, and vice versa,” she said. “There’s just a whole lot more Republicans here than there are Democrats, and so while a lot of Democrats here feel very hopeful and are a lot more energized, I don’t know that that necessarily changes the outcome of the election.”
That leaves turnout as a potentially decisive factor, both Gracey and Taylor said.
Statewide, the focus this year is on three ballot measures: Amendment 3 to ban abortions; Amendment 6 to limit legislative power to change measures passed by initiative; and Proposition A, on the 2025 Republican effort to gerrymander congressional districts.
Through Saturday, campaigns had spent $12.3 million on broadcast ads for ballot measures on the Nov. 3 ballot. The only statewide candidate election, for state auditor, has not seen any broadcast ad spending by candidates.
Political research shows each ballot measure, Gracey said, can increase turnout by 1% to 2%. That would translate to 3% to 6% more voters than would otherwise come to the polls.
But how many people would otherwise vote is more uncertain this year than in many others.
In the six off-presidential elections in Missouri this century, turnout has averaged about 2 million votes. The lowest was 2014, when, like this year, state auditor was the only statewide race. That year, Democrats did not field a candidate and a ballot measure on teacher tenure received the highest total vote of 1.44 million cast.
The highest was in 2018, when 2.4 million people voted in the U.S. Senate race between Josh Hawley and Claire McCaskill.
The questions on the ballot, Gracey said, are likely to increase the effect seen by research.
“Having so many ballot measures, especially ones about abortion, something really big for voters, really salient for voters, probably will increase voter turnout quite a bit,” Gracey said.
Ballot measures definitely drove statewide turnout in August, when 1.4 million people cast ballots statewide.
Much of the increase in this year’s primary was among voters who took Democratic ballots. Democratic primary turnout was almost 50% higher than average of primaries this century, while Republican turnout was only slightly above average.
“The best hard evidence of Democratic energy that I’ve seen is statewide primary turnout,” Taylor said.
Whether that Democratic enthusiasm carries into November — and whether dissatisfied Republicans stay home — could help determine the outcome in the 34th District.
The portion of Buchanan County remaining in the district has been represented by a Democrat on the county commission for five terms, though his most recent victory was narrow.
Ron Hook, Western District county commissioner, won re-election in 2024 by just 23 votes. He did not raise or spend more than $1,000 for his campaign and has not in any election. He counted on his experience in office to carry him through but told KFEQ/St. Joseph Post after the election that many voters are choosing a party rather than a person.
“There’s a lot of people that just want the courthouse to be completely Republican and red and whether you do a good job, I guess, or not in this community it doesn’t make any difference,” Hook said.
Both Buchanan and Platte counties supported abortion rights in the 2024 election, with Platte voting 62.3% in favor. Both counties supported Proposition A that year, which increased the minimum wage and set minimum standards for employee paid sick leave.
Republicans subsequently repealed the sick leave provision and a long-standing law requiring annual inflation adjustments in the minimum wage.
Democrats are making a big push for Missouri House seats in Platte County and see it as one of their most likely places to make gains.
“What would most likely make the race more competitive is depressed Republican turnout,” Taylor said, “whether from dissatisfaction with national leadership, the economy, or other issues.”
