After heavy rains earlier this year helped pull much of Missouri out of drought, dry conditions are returning to parts of the state as fall approaches.
About 41% of Missouri is now classified as abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The Bootheel has experienced some of the state’s most persistent drought conditions. But dry conditions have spread into parts of north-central and southwestern Missouri. The Missouri Department of Natural Resources says the combination of drought and heat is affecting nearly 550,000 residents.
Missouri started the year with dry conditions, but a wet summer brought record-breaking rainfall. The state received about seven inches of rain this summer, nearly double the recent average of about four inches.
Despite the wet summer, Missouri State Climatologist Zachary Leasor said drought conditions could persist or expand over the next one to three months.
“It’s hard to predict the next two months of weather, but we’re not guaranteed that this wet pattern continues,” Leasor said. “And so we have a very dry August and be in a drought by September. So the next couple of weeks, I think it’ll be critical.”
The Climate Prediction Center says parts of southwestern Missouri could experience rapidly developing drought and extreme heat in early September.
Leasor said climate change is also contributing to more dramatic swings between extremely wet and dry conditions.
“Warmer temperatures are going to lead to more extreme precipitation, but also they can set the table for more extreme drought events,” he said. “Additionally, a lot of climate projections show that when we have more extreme floods and droughts, we’re expected to see more extreme transitions between the two.”
Missouri has experienced recurring drought conditions in recent years. Gov. Mike Kehoe issued an executive order in September 2025 declaring a statewide drought alert. The order was extended several times, most recently through Sept. 1, 2026.
