As summer comes to a close, travelers may be experiencing sticker shock as they book flights for one last escapade before seasons change.
Jet fuel prices rose to $4.16 per gallon in May, an almost 114% year-over-year increase, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This increase led to higher airfare as airlines continue to respond to the spike in fuel prices.
Airfare at Missouri airports soared to an average domestic itinerary fare of $461 for flights leaving Lambert St. Louis International Airport, $478 for flights from Kansas City International Airport and $495 for flights out of Springfield-Branson National Airport in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics.
As fuel prices have gone up for airlines, airfare has followed suit to pass some of the cost onto consumers. American Airlines saw a nearly $2.2 billion year-over-year increase in fuel costs, according to second quarter 2026 data.
“The airlines don't have the cushion of very high profit margins to begin with and about 15% to 20%, and for some airlines even more than 20% of revenues is fuel,” said Atul Maheswari, UBS lead senior analyst covering the U.S. airline sector. “So it's a very material cost bucket for these airlines, and if that spikes so much, then they have no choice but to raise fares.”
Higher prices have not driven travelers away though. The amount of available seats filled on U.S. domestic and international flights has remained above 80% since March 2022, according to data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Load factor dropped only 0.2% year-over-year in April.
Major airlines have reported record revenues in the second quarter of the year, though profit margins remain tight. Southwest Airlines’ operating revenues were up 16.4% year-over-year, just enough to offset operating expenses which increased 16.1% year-over-year, according to a July 22 news release. American Airlines saw a similar increase in operating revenue, but operating expenses increased 22.6% year-over-year, according to data from a July 23 news release.
“Demand is currently very strong,” Maheswari said. “Americans, they want to travel and, you know, invest in the experience economy, and so this is basically happening even as fares have moved higher in response to the spike in jet fuel prices. So fares have moved higher, but Americans still want to travel, and that's essentially what's driving record revenues for these airlines.”
United Airlines reported an 84% increase in fuel costs from the second quarter in 2025 to the same period in 2026. Delta saw an adjusted fuel expense of $4.4 billion in its second quarter, the highest quarterly fuel expense in the company’s history, according to a July 10 news release.
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics found that airlines lost almost $1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared to a $0.2 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2025. Though airlines have raised prices to offset fuel expenditures, Maheswari said the companies may take until the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of next year to offset 100% of the costs onto customers.
“The airlines that have more premium customers who are typically less price sensitive, they would be in a position to pass along higher air fares faster,” Maheswari said. “That's one consideration. The other consideration is that you also had a situation wherein, you know, like I said earlier, some bookings were already in the books for these airlines, you know, even before the spike in fuel. So by fourth quarter, you've got virtually all of the bookings coming in at higher fares, and so that helps the dynamic for these airlines to be able to fully pass along jet fuel prices to consumers.”
World events factor into jet fuel price
The war in Iran caused disruptions to global oil supply, which constrained the amount of jet fuel able to be produced. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely limited since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 leading to several closures and openings of the strait.
In 2025, nearly 34% of global crude oil trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency.
The price of jet fuel is highly susceptible to world events. Prices surged in 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine, and fell to a 21-year low when the COVID-19 pandemic lowered demand.
“It's not like this is like completely unprecedented times,” Maheswari said. “It has happened in the past. What has been different this time, though, is that the airlines have been more successful to raise prices, and they've been able to do that, you know, more swiftly than in past periods.”
Jet fuel prices briefly lowered in June when a ceasefire was declared, but prices went right back up after the ceasefire ended.
Iranian leaders said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. agrees to end the blockade of Iranian ports, lift economic sanctions and release frozen assets, the Associated Press reported.
“I've seen a little bit of everything,” said Jan Stanczak, president of Travel Leaders / Jan’s Travel and Cruise in O’Fallon and Kirkwood. “You know, the wars, COVID, 9/11, everything. And so, again, everything that happens, any time there's any kind of major event that's happening in our world, then travel definitely gets affected by it, and so everything adjusts according to what's happening.”
Travelers respond to elevated airfare
Summer is a busy travel season, and demand has stayed high for airfare. Stanczak said that her clients are managing the higher airfare by driving instead of flying, postponing trips until next year or just paying the increased cost.
“Airfare is higher,” Stanczak said. “Seems like we don't have as many requests for just air lately, and when people are looking to go someplace, they're definitely looking for the packages because a lot of times when you package things together, it makes the land portion, the hotel portion less expensive by having air with it, so that kind of offsets it a little bit.”
Despite higher prices, Stanczak said that her travel agency's bookings were on par with last year and that revenue stayed flat.
She said some customers are opting to rearrange their trips as well. Some of her Missouri customers are opting to drive to Walt Disney World instead of fly and take a few days on the coast before ending up at the park.
Though many Americans are reworking their vacations to deal with higher airfare, Stanczak said that luxury travel has not been nearly as affected by the price increases as everyday travel.
A 2026 Deloitte Summer Travel Survey reflected this trend on a national level. Americans making a household income of less than $100,000 reported an 8% decrease in plans to travel over the summer. Americans making over $100,000 increased their share of the traveling public from 50% in 2025 to 55% this summer.
The survey found that despite a decrease in lower-income Americans deciding to travel, those who are choosing to get away are not limiting their budgets. People are committing to spending more money on their vacations across income levels.
Trip budgets are up 6% for those with incomes under $100,000, 24% for $100,000 to $199,000 and up 14% above $200,000 compared to last year’s findings. Though vacation upgrades and longer stays factor into these budget increases, 38% of travelers spending more say the change is due to increased airfare and lodging prices.
Though travel costs rose this summer, Stanczak said travelers may still be able to find affordable airfare.
“Not every destination and every flight is outrageous,” Stanczak said. “It's just there are some, and you know maybe it's the airline. That's how they put their fares out there, depending on what their schedules are and how much fuel they burn going from point A to point B to point C. I don't know. So it's all over the board right now.”
Spirit Airlines closure limits low-cost airline options
Spirit Airlines ceased operations on May 2, though it had been sizing down its operations for years before the closure.
From May 2025 to April 2026, the airline had 3% of the domestic airline market share, more than 2% lower than its 2023 market share, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Delta, American, Southwest and United each held over 16.8%.
In Missouri, Spirit served both Kansas City International Airport and St. Louis Lambert International Airport. In Kansas City, the airline spent many years as one of the top five carriers based on number of passengers. From August 2020 to July 2021, Spirit flew its highest share of passengers at 5.99%.
In recent years the airline’s presence in Missouri has faded. Spirit discontinued all services in St. Louis in January 2026 and in Kansas City Spirit accounted for only 2.52% of passengers from May 2025 to April 2026, according to data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Stanczak said the airline going out of business may also be contributing to higher prices as major airlines lose a competitor putting downward pressure on airfare.
However, with a global presence so much smaller than its competitors, Maheswari said the impact Spirit may have had on driving prices down would be minimal.
“In certain routes where they still had a sizeable presence, maybe it has impacted pricing in those routes, but it's hard to make that case on a national level since they were so small by the time they liquidated,” Maheswari said.
The future remains uncertain
An United airplane sits on the runway awaiting passengers at an airport. | Kelly Dereuck/Missouri Business Alert
Though demand is staying high even with increased fare, Maheswari said it is hard to predict if that demand will remain steady in the future. He said that if the economy remains strong then travel demand should remain strong as gross domestic product growth and travel demand have historically been strongly correlated.
“Nobody wants to see fare increases, but, you know, at the end of the day, the airlines need to be cognizant of their profit margins,” Maheswari said. “So should, you know, fuel prices remain elevated then ticket prices would be elevated as well.”
With the conflict in the Middle East still unresolved, the supply of crude oil is projected to remain unstable leaving jet fuel prices elevated for an extended time. Rising airfare has responded to elevated jet fuel prices, but Maheswari said the price rise may have been overdue.
“There's a huge mismatch between overall inflation versus airfare inflation in the U.S. economy,” Maheswari said. “So one could almost argue that, you know, there was some catch up to be had this year with respect to the airfares catching up to, you know, what level of inflation we have seen for the rest of the economy.”
Factors like inflation, global conflict and demand can all impact airfare over time, but smaller fluctuations such as seasonal demand, route changes and competition between airlines can cause regular price changes as well.
“Everything in travel is tied to what happens in our world,” Stanczak said. “It's hard to predict that because you never know what's going to happen tomorrow. You know if things get settled in Iran, then I think that prices will come back down.”
